Below is an in-depth analysis of how Botswana broke the traditional post-colonial diamond mining mold to secure economic sovereignty. Is Botswana Getting a Raw Deal From De Beers Diamonds? The Historical Context: The "Resource Curse" Avoided
If Botswana's finances are strained, De Beers itself is bleeding. The parent company posted an underlying EBITDA loss of $511 million in 2025, driven by weak Chinese demand, competition from lab-grown diamonds, and softening global prices. Even before that, in the first half of 2025 alone, De Beers saw its revenue drop 13% to $1.95 billion as a slump in the crucial Chinese market eroded demand. For a company that has historically dictated the market's terms, this financial distress is a humbling turn.
Compounding the issue is the corporate instability surrounding De Beers' parent company, Anglo American. Amid corporate restructuring and cost-cutting pressures, Anglo American has actively explored selling or spinning off De Beers. A change in corporate ownership adds an layer of volatility for Botswana, which relies on De Beers' massive marketing budget to sustain global consumer demand for natural luxury diamonds. The Verdict: Raw Deal or Realpolitik?
Critics who argue that Botswana is getting a raw deal point to the broader value chain of the diamond industry. Below is an in-depth analysis of how Botswana
Botswana’s long partnership with De Beers delivered major national benefits, but structural asymmetries, opacity, and dependence on a volatile market created real risks. Recent contract changes give Botswana more direct sales power and scope to capture value, yet global market shifts mean increased bargaining power does not automatically translate to higher revenues. Whether Botswana is “getting a raw deal” depends on ongoing transparency, how effectively it converts larger sales shares into better net prices, and its success diversifying and building downstream value.
Consider the numbers. In 2023, despite a slowdown, Debswana produced approximately 25 million carats. While Botswana’s treasury collected billions in taxes and dividends, the downstream revenue—the 200% markup that turns a rough stone into a polished engagement ring—almost entirely flowed to factories in India, China, and the diamond exchanges of New York and Tel Aviv.
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For decades, the southern African nation served as the economic engine of the diamond giant, supplying over 70% of De Beers Group's rough stones while the majority of high-margin processing, marketing, and trading stayed locked in Western capitals. However, a landmark contract finalized by President Duma Boko’s administration, paired with Botswana’s aggressive bid to buy a majority stake in De Beers, marks a historic turning point from neo-colonial dependency to absolute resource sovereignty. The Evolution of the Deal: From Asymmetry to Autonomy
Today, De Beers is the largest diamond mining company in Botswana, with a portfolio of mines that include Orapa, Jwaneng, and Venetia. The company's operations in Botswana account for a significant portion of the country's diamond production, and it is estimated that diamonds make up around 80% of Botswana's total exports. and jewelry manufacturing—remain largely elsewhere.
and De Beers was hailed as the ultimate success story in African mining
However, critics argue that the economic benefits of this move have not trickled down as expected. While the diamonds are now sorted in Gaborone, the most lucrative parts of the diamond pipeline—cutting, polishing, and jewelry manufacturing—remain largely elsewhere. Furthermore, the sheer volume of diamonds moving through Botswana has not translated into a corresponding diversification of the local economy.
By taking these steps, Botswana can ensure that it gets a fair deal from De Beers diamonds and that the industry benefits both the company and the country.